World Bank Sees 2027 Trinidad Economy Rebound — But Is UNC About to Inherit a Gas Rebound Built by the PNM?

The Trinidad Economy Rebound now being talked about for 2027 is the kind of forecast politicians love to hug up when times hard. After years of sluggish growth, gas shortages, anxious businesses, and endless talk about diversification that never quite diversifies anything, the World Bank says Trinidad and Tobago could see a much stronger year ahead. In its Macro Poverty Outlook for Trinidad and Tobago, the Bank outlines the country’s medium-term outlook against the backdrop of energy-sector pressures and expected recovery. Local reporting on the Bank’s latest regional update said growth is projected at 0.7 per cent in 2026 before accelerating to 3.2 per cent in 2027. Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal has also linked that expected improvement to stabilised gas output and major upstream projects moving closer to production.

But here is the real question: if the rebound comes from gas, and if the gas is coming from projects negotiated, licensed, unlocked, or advanced before UNC returned to office, then who should get the credit? Because if this economy gets a jolt in 2027, the country deserves more than pretty speeches and ribbon-cutting theatre. It deserves the truth about who planted the field and who merely show up for harvest.

A Rebound Written in Gas, Not Magic

This is where the story gets interesting. The optimistic 2027 outlook is not floating in from the sky like divine intervention. It lines up with a cluster of energy projects scheduled to start producing around that period.

BP says its Ginger project is expected to deliver first gas in 2027. Shell has also said the Aphrodite field is expected to start production in 2027, subject to approvals. Reuters reported this week that Shell plans to begin gas output from Manatee in 2027 as part of a wider strategy to increase supplies to Trinidad’s LNG and petrochemical sectors. That means the projected rebound is not based on vibes, press conferences, or a minister squinting at a spreadsheet and calling it progress. It is tied to actual molecules expected to come out of the ground.

If 2027 brings a boom, it is looking less like a policy miracle and more like delayed gas finally reaching shore.

That matters because the national conversation can easily get dishonest. Governments love to inherit momentum and rename it “vision.” They like to collect applause for trains they did not lay track for. And in Trinidad, where every economic uptick quickly turns into a political beauty pageant, that temptation will be strong.

So Who Actually Built the Biggest Pieces?

Let us separate the operator-led projects from the politically negotiated ones.

For Manatee, the record is clear. The Ministry of Energy announced in November 2021 that the Manatee Production Sharing Contract had been signed between the Ministry and Shell, with Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley present and then Energy Minister Stuart Young directly involved. The same official material pointed back to the 2019 agreement that delinked Manatee from Loran, allowing Trinidad to move ahead on the Trinidad side of the cross-border field. Reuters now reports Shell is targeting 2027 production from that same development.

For Dragon, the Ministry of Energy stated that Trinidad received a specific amended OFAC licence on October 17, 2023, allowing planning and development work to proceed. The Ministry also later said the country had secured a 30-year licence from Venezuela in December 2023 for the Dragon field. Those were not small clerical steps. Those were foundational diplomatic and regulatory breakthroughs, and they happened under the previous PNM administration.

For Cocuina-Manakin, the Energy Ministry and NGC have pointed to another major breakthrough under the PNM: an OFAC licence granted on May 31, 2024, followed by the E&P licence signed in July 2024, enabling the joint development of the cross-border field. Again, these are not “nice to have” details. These are the legal and commercial doors that have to be opened before any gas can start paying bills in Trinidad.

Manatee, Dragon and Cocuina-Manakin did not fall from the sky in 2026. The hard negotiating was already done.

The Credit Question UNC Will Not Enjoy

To be fair, not every drop of 2027 output can be pinned entirely on the PNM. Ginger and Aphrodite are also major contributors, and those are largely operator-driven developments by BP and Shell, even though government policy and approvals still matter. So the honest argument is not that the previous government built every single cubic foot expected in 2027. The honest argument is that the most politically significant groundwork for the marquee rebound story was already done before UNC returned to office.

And that is where the article hits its nerve. Because if the Trinidad Economy Rebound arrives on schedule, UNC will be sorely tempted to sell it as proof that they inherited a problem and solved it with masterful governance. But the timeline does not really support that fairy tale. A government that only took office in 2025 cannot credibly pretend it negotiated licences in 2023, secured cross-border arrangements in 2024, signed Manatee’s PSC in 2021, and pushed years of diplomatic energy talks over the finish line.

This is not to say the current government has no role. Governments can still mess up implementation, slow approvals, mishandle diplomacy, or create uncertainty that scares investors. They can also help projects move smoothly from paperwork to production. But that is different from claiming authorship.

The Real Story Behind the 2027 Headline

So yes, the evidence strongly suggests that the expected Trinidad Economy Rebound in 2027 is linked to energy projects coming on stream. And yes, a substantial share of the key enabling work for the most politically valuable of those projects was done under the PNM, especially under Dr Keith Rowley and Stuart Young.

That leaves Trinidad and Tobago with a deliciously uncomfortable political truth. The same people who now want to smile for the economic family photo may not be the ones who paid for the camera, booked the studio, and built the set. If 2027 really does bring relief, more gas, more foreign exchange, and more confidence, then the country should enjoy it. But it should also remember who spent years doing the grinding, technical, unglamorous work that made the rebound possible.

Because in Trinidad politics, plenty people like to show up when the doubles done fry. Very few want to admit who mixed the flour.

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